Posted by
Mark S. Rader on Wednesday, November 02, 2011 11:41:06 AM
Back in 2007 I wrote an article focusing on the Iraq war and how successful it had been as of that date. (The article is here: http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=106610242738456) While the article did not focus on it, there is a fact that I noted in the article that is very apropos for the recent announcement by the Obama administration that the US will totally leave Iraq, except for Embassy personnel, by year’s end. That reference in the article was this:
“Insurgency Fact (Italy): Fascist insurgency ended on Aug 02, 1980 with the bombing known as the Bologna massacre. The insurgency lasted 32 years. Also, we never left Italy, our military is still there.”
If history can be relied upon as a kind of evidence of what might happen in the future, then the removal of all US forces from Iraq will likely snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. While it is uncomfortable for us to look at these things in the context of winners and losers, it is a clear fact of history, going back 2000 years, that only losers leave. But I will focus just on America’s experiences as examples and discuss the downside of leaving.
Let’s look at the major military conflicts of the United States during and since its founding and look at when we stay and when we leave and what happens:
Revolutionary War (Win) - The Revolutionary War was indeed the founding battle(s) of our nation in support of the Declaration of Independence. We all know how it ended. 25,000 US conscripts died during the war. Imagine what would have happened had the Revolutionary Forces withdrawn after the surrender of Cornwallis at Yorktown. (Short Answer: There never would have been a United States.)
The War of 1812 (Win) - This was actually Revolutionary War II. The British took Washington DC when US troops withdrew. What would have happened had the US forces not returned? What would have happened had the English forces not withdrawn? Bottom line... the eventual loser ultimately withdrew and the winner stayed.
The Civil War (Win) - I think it is clear that had the Union simply withdrawn after the surrender of Robert E. Lee, the United States would have been plunged further into war or the South would have been victorious in their desires after all. Today there are actually more military bases and personnel in the southern states than in the rest of the United States. The US won because it did not leave.
Spanish-American War (Win/Lose) - The results of this war are very mixed, but if you study its outcomes you will see that when the US remained and did not withdraw they had a lasting victory. Where they withdrew, the ultimate outcome was a net loss.
World War I (Net Loss) - The complexities of WWI are immense, however, it is a very good example of what could happen in Iraq after a US Withdrawal. No matter how you slice it, after the victorious powers withdrew, Germany rose to dominate the region and eventually went to war with her neighbors and sparked WWII. We withdrew and really bad things happened. We returned to clean up the mess we made 20 years later.
World War II (Win) - WWII marked a lesson learned after the Spanish American War and WWI. When you win you do not leave. It also shows that by staying you are not in anyway occupying those nations, but you are actually helping them to succeed by maintaining their stability. Today, 60 years later, we are still in these countries in great numbers:
- Germany : 52,440
- Japan: 35,688
- Itally: 9,660
- United Kingdom: 9,000
- There are 820 military installations in 135 countries, most of which represent military gains during WWII. The winner did not leave.
Korea (Win) - After 50 years, 26,000 US personnel are insuring our victory in Korea. Imagine if we were not there. What if we had withdrawn?
Vietnam (Net Loss) - We can debate if we should have ever been in Vietnam at all. But the true tragedy of Vietnam was when we withdrew. Literally millions of Vietnamese and Cambodians were slaughtered. History calls it the, “Killing Fields”. We sacrificed too many men, but it pales in comparison to what happened when we left. It might be a window into what could happen in Iraq.
The Cold War (Win) - We have approximately 80,000 troops in nations that are former Soviet nations to insure our victory in the Cold War.
The First Gulf War (Net Loss) - Oddly, this mirrors the mistakes we made after WWI. General Norman Schwarzkopf was on the verge of seizing Baghdad and eliminating, once and for all, the threat that was Saddam Hussein. However, General Colon Powell convinced President HW Bush to turn and withdraw. This gave Hussein a stronger hold on the region and allowed him to proceed on many fronts for the next decade. With a history of killing even his own citizens and his vendetta against the Kurds it was no surprise there were 20,000 violations of the peace accords signed by Iraq after the US withdrawal. Iraq went on to create both an illegal air force and a long-range missile battery in violation of UN agreements. In the 90’s Hussein provided a safe haven for an injured Kolic Sheikh Mohammed who was the mastermind of 9/11. Hussein also paid award money to the families of killed suicide bombers and 9/11 terrorists. We would return to clean up this mess as we did after WWI.
It is easy to see, sadly, the reality is that Obama’s decision to withdraw from Iraq leaving only 160 Embassy personnel is very likely to fail. Since the defeat of Saddam Hussein, our real enemy in Iraq has been Iran. History shows us that when we withdraw a void will be left and someone will indeed fill that void. After WWI that void was filled by Adolf Hitler. In Vietnam and Cambodia it was Pol Pot and his killing fields. After the first Gulf War, Hussein endured and continued to plague the region and one might argue the US itself. Who will fill the void in Iraq this time?
The utter vulgarity of this decision is testament to the small regard Obama has for the blood, sweat, and tears of the US Military and the families of those who lost loved ones. If it fails, this will be a failure that the liberals will celebrate and blame on George W. Bush. But the reality is, the indignity of the 6000 dead is being perpetrated by one man and that man is Barrack Obama.
Mark Rader
Read More Like This At: